Author: nfltalk

  • Inside the Lines rising: Best bets up 9.2 units heading into NFL Week 4, led by 17-8 mark on passing props

    Inside the Lines rising: Best bets up 9.2 units heading into NFL Week 4, led by 17-8 mark on passing props

    The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team’s picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free.  We also have picks for Thursday Night Football’s Seattle at Arizona game ready to go.

    I’m putting in a call out for BetMGM right out of the gate because of the table down below that shows they have offered the best price in 33 of our 96 best bets and account for basically 100% of our profit!

    Strong Early Returns in the NFL

    Thanks to a killer Week 3, we have generated over 9 units of profit and have been especially strong on our reception props, going 7-3, +4.6.

    WEEKRIGHTWRONGUNITS11212-0.71220162.38323137.51ALL55419.18

    Our passing props have also been strong, with a combined 12-4 record on passing yards, passing touchdowns, pass attempts and completion props. Our pass interception props drag down the category slightly at 5-4. The ever popular Anytime Touchdown bets are down for the season but went 6-3 in Week 3.

    MARKETRIGHTWRONGUNITSREC734.64UNDER302.74PASSYD412.52PASSTD632.48ML201.74PASS100.88COMP100.76RUSH320.37OVER11-0.09RECYD44-0.53PASSINT54-0.57ATD910-0.62RUSH+RECYD12-1.13PS56-1.65RUSHYD35-2.35ALL55419.19

    Shopping Around is a Must

     They both have offered the best price in a fair number of times and we are profitable on the platforms. We cover all major bet types and some lines, especially ATDs might be as high as +400 and some as low as -200. I translated all of our best lines to implied percentages and then generated the average betting line for each book.

    You see that on average our line is -106, which is not only better than the industry standard -110 juice, it’s probably much better than the average prop bet over/under juice and by shopping around we probably earned ourselves an extra 1.5 units.

    MARKETRIGHTWRONGUNITSAVG…..

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  • Washington State lineman Sone Falealo shot at party after Apple Cup; suspect identified as Washington student

    Washington State lineman Sone Falealo shot at party after Apple Cup; suspect identified as Washington student

    Imagn Images

    Washington State offensive lineman Sone Falealo was shot early Sunday morning following the Apple Cup loss to rival Washington, a university spokeswoman said in a statement to The Spokesman-Review Monday. Pullman police identified the suspect as 20-year-old Jakori Buchanan, a University of Washington student, according to court documents obtained by The Spokesman-Review. Authorities said they secured an arrest warrant for Buchanan Monday afternoon and plan to charge him with first- and fourth-degree assault.

    Falealo, an Alaska native who transferred from Idaho this offseason, was at a party with two teammates, Jaylin Caldwell and Xavier Thorpe. The three offensive linemen were reportedly asked to act as security for the gathering, according to court records.

    Court documents indicate the altercation began when Buchanan allegedly assaulted a woman at the party, striking her in the chest after she attempted to defend herself. The three Washington State football players intervened, and Falealo was shot during the confrontation. He told police he “didn’t remember much after that” and was taken to Pullman Regional Hospital, where he underwent surgery to remove the bullet, according to KREM-TV in Spokane. He is expected to make a full recovery.

    Thorpe told officers he saw Buchanan and his companions leave in a dark sedan, which police later identified as a gray 2025 Hyundai Sonata. The vehicle was a rental located at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.

    Buchanan’s attorney, Ronnie Rae, said in a statement that the shooting was in self-defense and that Buchanan was trying…

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  • NFL week three results: Eagles beat Rams and Browns upset Packers

    NFL week three results: Eagles beat Rams and Browns upset Packers

    Media caption,

    Eagles and Vikings defences star in NFL plays of the week

    ByPaul Higham

    BBC Sport Journalist

    For all the superstar names in the NFL, an extraordinary Sunday of week three was dominated by the more unheralded kickers and back-up quarterbacks.

    Incredibly, five games were settled on the last play – four thanks to field goals, including a huge upset win for the Cleveland Browns against the Green Bay Packers.

    The Los Angeles Rams had a last-gasp field goal blocked by the Philadelphia Eagles and returned for a touchdown as the Super Bowl champions produced a huge comeback victory to remain unbeaten.

    Back-up quarterbacks had a day too, with Mac Jones steering the San Francisco 49ers to a 3-0 start, while familiar faces Carson Wentz and Marcus Mariota led blowout wins for the Minnesota Vikings and the Washington Commanders respectively.

    Block party keeps Eagles unbeaten

    Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption,

    Jordan Davis is larger than your average touchdown scorer in the NFL

    The Rams dominated and led 26-7 in Philadelphia before the Eagles engineered their biggest home comeback since 1988, with Jalen Hurts finally being let off the leash in the second half as he threw his first touchdown passes of the season.

    Special teams made the difference, though, as the Eagles blocked two fourth-quarter field goal attempts.

    The second was a heartbreaker on the last kick of the game to win it for the Rams, as Jordan Davis not only blocked it but returned it 61 yards for a touchdown.

    At 336lb, he is the heaviest player to do so, and was clocked at 18.59mph by the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.

    However unlikely it seemed at stages, the Eagles moved to 3-0 and have won 19 of their past 20 games.

    Browns leave it late to beat Packers

    Green Bay led 10-0 with less than four minutes left in Cleveland before another wild ending helped the Browns win their first game of the season and end an eight-game losing run.

    Jordan Love threw his first interception for 10 regular-season games but looked to…

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  • Paul Finebaum calls Dabo Swinney a “laughingstock”

    Paul Finebaum calls Dabo Swinney a “laughingstock”

    So many questions abound after Clemson’s latest loss to the Syracuse Orangemen Saturday, including the future of head coach Dabo Swinney, who some should consider retirement after this season, including Paul Finebaum.

    “My advice to Dabo, and I know he doesn’t like taking advice from people like me, is to get out of there,” Finebaum said on “The Matt Barrie Show” Sunday. “Be quiet. quit talking because he has no credibility now with his fanbase. They’ve heard the whines before. He’s become a meme.”

    Finebaum added, “For a really good coach … he’s become somewhat of a laughingstock, every time he opens his mouth, and it’s time for him to do one of two things: it’s either consider another school, and I think he’s hirable if he quits talking, or just get away from football and be a TV guy. … I think it’s over at Clemson. Let’s quit trying to sugarcoat it, Matt. Sometimes it’s very difficult to get it back when you’ve lost it.”

    Even some of Swinney’s ex-players are questioning the team’s effort on Saturday, wondering if they had given up. 

    Former defensive end Xavier Thomas, who played at Clemson from 2018-23, posted on X: “At this point, it’s not even an upset anymore.”

    Thomas continued, “Not once would I ever & have ever spoken down on Dabo. But, the Standard will always be the Standard, & it’s not being upheld.”

    This almost sounds like what Alabama went through after their loss to Florida State. Many ex-players calling out coaches and current players for their lack of effort and wondering if they were upholding the standard set by former head coach Nick Saban.

    Although the landscape of college football has changed, Dabo Swinney has not, and it’s starting to catch up with him in a big way. 

     

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  • Use DraftKings promo code for Monday best bets: Get $200 in bonus bets by picking Lions vs. Ravens on MNF

    Use DraftKings promo code for Monday best bets: Get $200 in bonus bets by picking Lions vs. Ravens on MNF

    A high-profile matchup takes center stage when the Detroit Lions take on the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football, providing a great opportunity to take advantage of the latest DraftKings promo code, which offers new users $200 in bonus bets and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket for NFL betting. Baltimore is favored by 4.5 points, according to the latest NFL odds at DraftKings, and the over/under is up to 54 points after rising all day. Claim the latest DraftKings promo code here, where new users get $200 in bonus bets and $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket: 

    Check out our DraftKings promo code review for full details.

    Make Monday Night Football picks today by following our model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. The model is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 37-17 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. It also enters Week 26 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 34-27 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. Anybody following its NFL betting picks and MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

    Monday NFL best bets: 

    Ravens vs. Lions Over 53.5 total points (-105)Brewers vs. Padres Over 7 total runs (-118)Giants (-149) to defeat the Cardinals

    Combining the model’s three picks into a Monday parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +502 (risk $100 to win $502). Bet it at DraftKings here:

    Ravens vs. Lions Over 54 total points (-105)

    Both of these offenses feature explosive playmakers. The Ravens are averaging 40.5 points per game this season, while the Lions dropped 52 points against the Bears in Week 2. In addition, the total has gone Over in six of Detroit’s past eight games. The total has also gone Over in four of Baltimore’s last five games. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson threw for 357 yards and three touchdowns and rushed for a score when these two teams last met in…

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  • Russell Wilson: There are tough moments, you have to have thick skin

    Russell Wilson: There are tough moments, you have to have thick skin

    When the Giants traded back into the first round to select quarterback Jaxson Dart in April, the clock started on making him their starting quarterback.

    Giants fans at MetLife Stadium made it clear on Sunday night that they are ready for the future to start now. Dart came into the game to play three snaps and his return to the sideline so Russell Wilson could re-enter the game led to boos from the home crown.

    There were other moments of booing the offense in a 22-9 loss that dropped the Giants to 0-3 on the season. Head coach Brian Daboll made no suggestion that a quarterback change is coming and Wilson shared his own response to the negative reactions.

    “Yeah, there are highs and lows and always tough moments,” Wilson said, via a transcript from the team. “You know, you got to have thick skin, you know what I mean? You got to be able to know who you are, the player that you are, know what you’re capable of. Obviously I’ve been able to show that throughout my career and obviously last week and everything else, too, what we’re capable of as an offense. I think they made a couple more plays than us today. I think it was a 9-6 game for most of the game. Pretty tight. We needed one or two big plays. Unfortunately didn’t come our way.”

    Wilson and the Giants offense put up a lot of points in Dallas in Week 2, but they did not score a touchdown Sunday night or in their Week 1 loss to the Commanders. That’s more than being one or two plays away and those performances are going to make it harder for the Giants to stay on their current course for much longer.

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  • College Football Playoff Vibe Check, Week 4: Indiana sure looks like the next … Indiana

    College Football Playoff Vibe Check, Week 4: Indiana sure looks like the next … Indiana

    In late July, I had the chance to interview Indiana wide receiver Elijah Surratt during Big Ten Media Days on the Cover 3 Podcast. I asked him a question that was gnawing at my own brain, and until that point, I hadn’t heard anybody else publicly consider.

    As Surratt sat next to me, I asked him if he wondered why, while everybody else was looking for “the next Indiana,” nobody seemed willing to accept the idea that Indiana was “the next Indiana.” Why was everybody so sure the Hoosiers were a one-year wonder?

    I would hope far more people are considering the possibility after Saturday night.

    Surratt scored two touchdowns as the Hoosiers whooped No. 9 Illinois 63-10, and in the process, let the college football world know they don’t plan to go anywhere. Sure, you can mock their nonconference scheduling habits, and you can question how they’ll handle a schedule that’s more difficult this season than last year’s (on paper, anyway), but you can’t question Saturday’s result. Though I’m sure they’ll try anyway.

    It reminds me of what we saw last season. 

    Indiana started the 2024 season 6-0 with conference wins over UCLA, Maryland and Northwestern, but nobody was taking them seriously yet. They were falling victim to the defense mechanism the College Football Hivemind has any time a team nobody expected to be good starts doing things that suggest they’re a good football team.

    “Oh, you beat that team by four touchdowns? Well that’s only because they suck. It doesn’t mean anything.”

    Then Nebraska came to town in mid-October. The Huskers were 5-1 themselves, and while they weren’t ranked, they were seen as Indiana’s first real test. Indiana spanked them 56-7, but while they moved up to No. 13 in the polls the next day, they still weren’t taken…

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  • Report: James Conner’s ankle injury will require season-ending surgery

    Report: James Conner’s ankle injury will require season-ending surgery

    Cardinals running back James Conner was carted off with a right ankle injury in the third quarter Sunday. It looked bad, and it appears it is bad.

    Adam Schefter of ESPN reports that the injury will require season-ending surgery, though further medical testing Monday will provide the full extent of the damage.

    Coach Jonathan Gannon said after the 16-15 loss to the 49ers that he didn’t know the severity of the injury.

    Conner, 30, was injured on a 1-yard run when Jordan Elliott and Marques Sigle tackled him with 12:26 remaining.

    He had nine carries for 22 yards.

    Conner is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and signed a two-year extension in November 2024, and his $3.64 million base salary for this year is guaranteed for injury.

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