The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team’s picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. We also have picks for Thursday Night Football’s Seattle at Arizona game ready to go.
I’m putting in a call out for BetMGM right out of the gate because of the table down below that shows they have offered the best price in 33 of our 96 best bets and account for basically 100% of our profit!
Strong Early Returns in the NFL
Thanks to a killer Week 3, we have generated over 9 units of profit and have been especially strong on our reception props, going 7-3, +4.6.
WEEKRIGHTWRONGUNITS11212-0.71220162.38323137.51ALL55419.18
Our passing props have also been strong, with a combined 12-4 record on passing yards, passing touchdowns, pass attempts and completion props. Our pass interception props drag down the category slightly at 5-4. The ever popular Anytime Touchdown bets are down for the season but went 6-3 in Week 3.
MARKETRIGHTWRONGUNITSREC734.64UNDER302.74PASSYD412.52PASSTD632.48ML201.74PASS100.88COMP100.76RUSH320.37OVER11-0.09RECYD44-0.53PASSINT54-0.57ATD910-0.62RUSH+RECYD12-1.13PS56-1.65RUSHYD35-2.35ALL55419.19
Shopping Around is a Must
They both have offered the best price in a fair number of times and we are profitable on the platforms. We cover all major bet types and some lines, especially ATDs might be as high as +400 and some as low as -200. I translated all of our best lines to implied percentages and then generated the average betting line for each book.
You see that on average our line is -106, which is not only better than the industry standard -110 juice, it’s probably much better than the average prop bet over/under juice and by shopping around we probably earned ourselves an extra 1.5 units.
MARKETRIGHTWRONGUNITSAVG…..
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