Category: NFL News

Running Backs

Week 3 Expected Points

Player

Team

EP

FPOE

PPR

Aaron Jones

MIN

25.1

0.7

25.8

Jonathan Taylor

IND

21.2

5.3

26.5

Chuba Hubbard

CAR

20.1

7.8

27.9

Kyren Williams

LAR

20

11.6

31.6

David Montgomery

DET

18.5

2.7

21.2

Derrick Henry

BAL

18.4

12

30.4

Breece Hall

NYJ

18.3

0

18.3

Zack Moss

CIN

18

2.7

20.7

Alvin Kamara

NO

17.8

-2.1

15.7

Brian Robinson Jr

WAS

17.4

-6.7

10.7

Devin Singletary

NYG

17

3.8

20.8

Jordan Mason

SF

16.7

-5.9

10.8

Najee Harris

PIT

16.7

-3.1

13.6

Saquon Barkley

PHI

16.5

17.1

33.6

Zach Charbonnet

SEA

16.2

9.5

25.7

De’Von Achane

MIA

15.8

-7

8.8

Carson Steele

KC

15.7

-7.3

8.4

D’Andre Swift

CHI

14.5

-8.3

6.2

Bijan Robinson

ATL

14.1

-0.9

13.2

James Cook

BUF

14

4.7

18.7

Rachaad White

TB

13.9

-5.4

8.5

Travis Etienne

JAC

13

-0.5

12.5

Javonte Williams

DEN

12.9

-4.8

8.1

Josh Jacobs

GB

11.8

-6

5.8

Roschon Johnson

CHI

11.8

-1.6

10.2

JK Dobbins

LAC

11.7

-3.3

8.4

Rico Dowdle

DAL

11.1

-2.5

8.6

Miles Sanders

CAR

10.9

0.1

11.0

Jahmyr Gibbs

DET

10.5

-0.2

10.3

Samaje Perine

KC

10.2

-3.2

7.0

Jerome Ford

CLE

9.9

0.1

10.0

Braelon Allen

NYJ

9

0.8

9.8

Cam Akers

HOU

9

0.9

9.9

Khalil Herbert

CHI

8.9

-8

0.9

Alexander Mattison

LV

8.7

4.7

13.4

Bucky Irving

TB

8.7

2.7

11.4

Cordarrelle Patterson

PIT

8.5

-0.7

7.8

Emanuel Wilson

GB

8.5

8

16.5

Jaleel McLaughlin

DEN

8.5

-0.1

8.4

Ty Johnson

BUF

8.4

5.2

13.6

Chase Brown

CIN

7.3

1.6

8.9

Tony Pollard

TEN

7

-1.1

5.9

Ray Davis

BUF

6.7

2.6

9.3

Tyjae Spears

TEN

6.5

3.6

10.1

Antonio Gibson

NE

6.2

0.5

6.7

Tyrone Tracy Jr

NYG

5.9

0.1

6.0

Jamaal Williams

NO

5.6

-4.7

0.9

James Conner

ARI

5.6

-2.1

3.5

Alec Ingold

MIA

5.5

-1.1

4.4

Justice Hill

BAL

5.5

1.9

7.4

Roschon Johnson (CHI, 11.8 Expected Points)

The Bears running game is atrocious. D’Andre Swift, who was signed to a three-year, $24 million contract this offseason, has rushed for 68 scoreless yards on 37 carries (1.8 YPC) and has caught only six passes on 10 targets. Currently the RB27 in expected fantasy points (34.4), Swift’s negative 15.0 fantasy points over expected ranks 114th at the position.

It doesn’t help that the Bears ranked 31st as a team in yards before contact per attempt (0.71 YBCO/ATT), but it’s far easier to replace the starter at running back than it is to replace an entire offensive line.

Enter Roschon Johnson.

The…

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The officiating crew in the game between the Giants and Cowboys got off to a rough start on Thursday night when they called a penalty on the wrong team. 

The gaffe came during the first quarter of action while New York was driving. The Giants had a second-and-7 from the Cowboys’ 37-yard line and they appeared to set up a third-and-3 after Daniel Jones ran for four yards on the play. The third-and-3 never happened though, because Giants tight end Daniel Bellinger got flagged for a facemask. 

The officiating error here is that Bellinger shouldn’t have been penalized. On the play, it’s pretty clear that Cowboys linebacker DeMarvion Overshown grabbed Bellinger’s facemask and not the other way around. 

Since Bellinger got flagged, the Giants got hit with a 15-yard penalty, which set them up with a second-and-18 from the Cowboys’ 48-yard line. If the officials had correctly flagged Overshown, then the Giants would have been set up with a first-and-10 at the Cowboys’ 18-yard line. That’s a difference of 30 yards for the Giants, who ended up getting a 52-yard field goal from Greg Joseph on the drive. 

The field goal from Joseph ended up being the only points the Giants got in the first quarter. At the end of one, the Cowboys led New York 7-3. If you want to see the current score of the game along with a live breakdown, be sure to check out our live blog by clicking here. 

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Brissett still confident in Patriots offensive line amid struggles originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The New England Patriots offensive line was a major problem in the team’s 24-3 loss to the New York Jets in Week 3.

This unit allowed seven sacks and 15 QB hits. It also allowed pressure on 53.8 percent of dropbacks. This kind of onslaught on Patriots quarterbacks is not sustainable.

If the Patriots are going to have any kind of competent passing attack, the pass protection has to be much better. New England has allowed the NFL’s second-highest pressure rate despite being blitzed at a lower rate than last season.

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Despite the o-line’s struggles this season, starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett is still confident in this group. What is his message to the offensive line ahead of the showdown in San Francisco?

“Just keep battling. Keep battling. It’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel, but it’s coming,” Brissett said at his Wednesday press conference.

“It’s about going out there, keep battling, put your best foot forward, and trust in the process that when it clicks, it clicks. Like the question with the running back, my confidence doesn’t change with the O-line. The plays are going to come. They’re going to settle in. It’s week-to-week each week, and if we put our best foot forward, we’ll be all right.”

The Patriots offensive line has another tough matchup against a very good San Francisco 49ers pass rush Sunday afternoon in Week 4.

“I mean, there’s talent all around the field. A group that has been together – not in this system – but together for a long time. A lot of good players,” Brissett said when asked about the 49ers…

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An NFC East showdown will occur on Thursday Night Football to start the Week 4 NFL schedule as the Dallas Cowboys (1-2) go on the road to play the New York Giants (1-2). The Giants were able to bounce back in Week 3 with a much-needed victory. New York beat the Cleveland Browns, 21-15, on the shores of Lake Erie. It was a different story for Dallas, as the Baltimore Ravens went into AT&T Stadium and knocked off the Cowboys, 28-25.

Kickoff from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NY., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Dallas is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest Cowboys vs. Giants odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 45. Before locking in any Giants vs. Cowboys picks, make sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein, considering his mastery of picks involving Dallas.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Hartstein’s weekly Vegas contest selections form the basis of his NFL best bets column, which is 79-48-2 (62.2%, +25.95 units) since its inception in 2022. He’s also 22-8 (+1305) on his last 30 ATS NFL picks involving the Cowboys. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Hartstein has locked in on Cowboys vs. Giants and just revealed his coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line and over/under for Giants vs. Cowboys:

Cowboys vs. Giants spread: Dallas -5.5Cowboys vs. Giants over/under: 45 pointsCowboys vs. Giants money line: Dallas -240, New York +197DAL: Cowboys have allowed 464 rushing yards over the last two gamesNYG: New York…..

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Three weeks of the NFL have people stumbling over each other to be able to give the hottest take they can, which is a great time to center the masses and get them to calm down — particularly when it comes to young quarterbacks (except for Jaguars fans).

That’s where this week’s Four Verts column starts, with a trip to Chicago to get people to relax about the future of their franchise.

Caleb Williams is performing better than people think

Everyone, let’s calm down. It’s time to realize that perhaps NFL fans have been a bit spoiled by young quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson reaching elite status so early in their careers. That’s not the normal development path, really. Most baby quarterbacks need some seasoning and reps and lots of practice before they ascend to the top of the sport, which is a big reason why NFL passing games are down right now. There’s no reason to look at all of these guys with a sense of despair, even with Jayden Daniels having a breakout performance on national television that many young players haven’t had to date.

That’s particularly true of Bears rookie Caleb Williams, who currently sits at the bottom of many NFL efficiency stats, leading people to wonder, after three games, if Chicago might have selected the wrong guy. Whew. Breathe. It’s healthy for you. Slow down. Feel the breeze. It’s far too early to make that proclamation and honestly, there isn’t a reason to freak out about Williams just yet.

The overall numbers have been poor so far. Williams currently ranks 29th in expected points per dropback (-0.34) according to NFL Pro’s list of qualified passers — only Will Levis (-0.44) and Bryce Young (-0.60) have been worse in terms of efficiency. Part of that is due to Williams, who is still testing the limits of what will be possible for him at the NFL level. Part of that is due to a poor showing from the Bears’ offensive line, especially the interior, which has been putrid so far this…

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For fans of NFL teams that are currently under .500, it’s important to remember that it’s still September, after all, and that there are still 15 weeks remaining in the 2024 regular season. 

There are currently 18 teams that have losing records entering Week 4, with three teams still in search of their first victory. But while things may look bleak now, there are several losing teams that have a legitimate chance at being one of the 14 teams that are still playing when the playoffs begin in January. 

With that in mind, we decided to rank each of the NFL’s losing teams’ chances at making the playoffs. The list includes the defending NFC champion (49ers), the team that employs the NFL’s highest-paid player (Cowboys) and a team that hasn’t had a losing season since 2020 (Bengals). 

It’s clear that the Ravens struggle to hold on to leads; they had to hang on in Dallas despite building a 28-6 cushion. This came a week after they blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter at home against the Raiders. 

Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and Baltimore’s offense have been as good as advertised so far. The problem, though, is a defense that is among the league’s worst against both the run and the pass. Until that gets fixed, Baltimore’s playoff prospects are somewhat murky. 

Like several other teams, injuries have done a number on the 49ers in the season’s first month. But if anyone can withstand injuries, it’s Kyle Shanahan’s team. The 49ers have immense depth that includes running back Jordan Mason and wideout Jauan Jennings, who have both stepped up recently. But the team cannot afford many more significant injuries from here on out. 

Dallas’ defense has been atrocious so far this season after it was one of the league’s best under new Commanders coach Dan Quinn. It’s going to be a long year if this continues and Dak Prescott has to spend every fourth quarter playing catch up. Two…

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Eye-opening stat shows 49ers’ alarming offensive line outlier originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

While there are plenty of issues with the 49ers as of late, one alarming offensive line stat stands out.

Per ESPN’s Nick Wagoner, citing the ESPN Analytics database, the San Francisco O-line has one big outlier in pass block win rate with tackle Colton McKivitz at 81.6 percent, 53rd among all NFL offensive tackles.

Through three games, numbers show one outlier for #49ers in pass block win rate on OL:

Trent Williams – 97.6% (1st among tackles)
Colton McKivitz – 81.6% (53rd among tackles)
Aaron Banks – 95.1% (9th among guards)
Dominick Puni – 94.1% (18th among guards)
Jake Brendel – 95.5%…

— Nick Wagoner (@nwagoner) September 24, 2024

ESPN’s pass rush win rate metric is defined by “how often a pass rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds,” while the pass block win rate metric “conveys the rate linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer.”

This is significant considering the rest of the 49ers’ offensive line is playing exceptionally well, with Trent Williams, Aaron Banks, Dominick Puni and Jake Brendel all ranking within the top 20 for their respective positions. McKivitz’s play is one of many reasons why the 49ers’ offense has looked out of sync three games into the 2024 NFL season.

Without superstar playmakers like Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel due to injuries, San Francisco must rely on quarterback Brock Purdy to make things happen on offense. While Williams is one of the elite protectors in the NFL, the leaky protection from McKivitz puts Purdy in a difficult position as defenses around the league will bring extra pressure.

Keeping Purdy healthy and upright in the pocket will be critical as San Francisco looks to salvage a season that is in danger of slipping away.

While the 49ers will face a beatable New England Patriots team in Week 4, what follows is a particularly brutal stretch of games against some of the best teams in the…

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Kim O’Reilly, CBS Sports

As if we didn’t already know it, Mike Tomlin is a great coach.

He didn’t need this season for us to know that, but his team’s 3-0 start only reinforces how good he is doing his job.

The Pittsburgh Steelers lead the AFC North with a 3-0 record, despite playing with what is essentially a backup at quarterback — soon to be full-time starter — in Justin Fields. The Steelers are doing it the Tomlin way, with a tough, nasty approach led by the defense with a running game and a few big passing plays on top. They have not allowed any team to score more than 10 points.

All those who had the Steelers undefeated at this point, please stand up? Not many of you who don’t wear the team colors. Yet here they are as one of the remaining five undefeated teams. The quarterback controversy of the summer involving Fields and Russell Wilson seems like a long time ago.

Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has done a…

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