Author: nfltalk

The AFC Championship between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs has the potential to be the game of the year in the NFL, and the winner of the showdown will likely be the favorite to win Super Bowl LVIII. Not only does this matchup have two MVP quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, but the Chiefs and Ravens each possess the top-two scoring defenses in the league (the first time in a conference championship game since 2004). 

Mahomes and Jackson will get all the attention (and deservingly so), as both quarterbacks will have plenty to prove in the showdown. Jackson is looking to prove he can lead the Ravens to a Super Bowl and establish his legacy while Mahomes is further trying to cement his status as one of the greatest quarterbacks ever by leading the Chiefs to their fourth Super Bowl appearance in five years. 

For Mahomes and Jackson to advance to the Super Bowl, these five players will have to play a major role in the Chiefs or Ravens advancing to Las Vegas. These are the five biggest X factors in the AFC Championship (the high-profile names like Mahomes, Jackson, Travis Kelce and Roquan Smith were omitted based on their superstar status). 

With not as many offensive weapons as in years past, Pacheco is the one player who can get the offense moving the chains when the pass game isn’t working. Pacheco has 383 career rushing yards in the playoffs, the eighth-most through a player’s first two seasons in NFL history, which included 97 yards and touchdown in the divisional-round win over the Bills. 

In 14 regular-season games, Pacheco had 935 rushing yards and seven touchdowns as the Chiefs’ featured back — a role he’s embraced in the postseason. He has 39 carries for 186 yards and two touchdowns (4.8 yards per carry) in two playoff games, as the Chiefs offense has averaged 26.5 points per game against two top-10 defenses (in yards allowed). 

For the Chiefs…

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Whether you’ve played Daily Fantasy on Yahoo before or are giving it a try for the first time, this weekly column will take a look at the DFS landscape, revealing whom I like building lineups around, stars to fade, undervalued plays and bargain bin options to help you construct a better team.

Lineup building blocks

Christian McCaffrey ($42) vs. Detroit Lions

McCaffrey turned 29 opportunities into 128 yards from scrimmage and two scores last week despite San Francisco playing through an uncharacteristic negative game script. He now gets a tough Detroit run defense that’s allowed the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks. Still, it’s difficult to fade CMC in DFS in a week with so few alternatives.

McCaffrey has scored 23 touchdowns over 17 games this season, and the 49ers are touchdown favorites with easily the highest implied team total (29 points) this week. CMC’s high salary is worth paying up for during the Championship Round.

Lamar Jackson ($39) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City’s defense has been incredibly stingy when healthy this season, but Jackson can overcome any matchup right now (and the Chiefs lost two defensive starters during last week’s game). He got 9.3 YPA at home during the regular season and ran for 100+ yards and two touchdowns the last time these teams met. Jackson is also the lone remaining dual-threat quarterback in the playoffs.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($34) @ San Francisco 49ers

The Lions will likely attempt to establish the run, but San Francisco’s opponents managed the fewest carries in the league this season (and had the third-most pass attempts). Jared Goff is better indoors, but St. Brown averaged a healthy 86.1 receiving yards and scored seven of his 10 touchdowns on the road this season. The 49ers can struggle against the slot, where Sun God runs more than 50% of his routes. St. Brown is a strong DFS option in a matchup with the Lions touchdown underdogs and in favorable weather.

Star to…

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The NFL playoffs are fast approaching their anticipated finale, with Super Bowl LVIII just around the corner. In the meantime, the 2024 coaching cycle is in full swing, with close to a half-dozen teams already naming new head coaches and several still in search of a top candidate. In the end, more than 20% of the league will enter the new season with fresh leaders on the sideline.

It’s impossible to know which of this year’s hires will actually pan out. Some years, the least-celebrated promotion ultimately has the last laugh. Just as in free agency, big names don’t always translate to big results. This is a team game, remember, and that means coaches, like quarterbacks, are often affected by the staff and supporting cast around them.

But how do the hires register right now? Here’s our best attempt to grade each of the head coaching additions:

Jim Harbaugh
Getty Images

We’ve seen big-name hires from the college ranks flounder before (see: Urban Meyer, Matt Rhule, Chip Kelly), but the difference is, Harbaugh’s been an undisputed winner everywhere he’s coached, and that includes the NFL. One win away from a Super Bowl title with the 49ers back in 2012, now he’s back on the West Coast with a franchise quarterback and playoff-caliber roster already in place, guiding the team he once played for in the ’90s. It’s a perfect match, pairing a talented but sometimes-sheepish contender with a rugged program-builder who knows how to dial up splashy offense. The AFC West is interesting again.

Grade: A

Dave Canales
Getty Images

Impatience has been the name of the game in Carolina, with owner David Tepper burning through coaches and QBs in recent…

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Cincinnati Bengals v Kansas City Chiefs

Below is a look at the league’s most extreme run funnel and pass funnel defenses through the Divisional Round — teams being consistently attacked on the ground or through the air regardless of game script.

Having an understanding of which defenses are being bludgeoned via the rush or pass should help us identify matchups that may be better than we think in Super Wild Card Weekend DFS contests and other fantasy formats.

Not every game, of course, features a clearcut run or pass funnel defense. I’ve broken down both of this weekend’s games, even if there are no trends in how a defense is being attacked. My hope is to provide a basis from which you can make your all-important lineups decisions in this condensed slate.

And please remember at all times: The process.

49ers vs. Lions

We have a classic pass funnel vs. pass funnel matchup here. Detroit and San Francisco, however, are pass funnels for two very different reasons.

Teams have leaned hard on the pass against the 49ers because Kyle Shanahan’s hyper-efficient offense has poured on the points and forced opponents to abandon the rush in the second half. No team saw a higher pass rate over expected against them than the 49ers during the regular season. San Francisco opponents had a 62 percent neutral pass rate this year, the second highest rate in the league.

This has largely covered for a Niners defense that can be had on the ground; we saw as much in the Divisional Round when Aaron Jones had 108 yards on 18 carries, with an obscene 5.2 yards after contact per rush. The Packers posted a lofty 50 percent rushing success rate against the 49ers.

The Lions, on the other hand, have been mercilessly attacked via the pass because they’re quite bad at defending the pass. This is analytics. Teams passed at a 61 percent rate against Detroit in neutral situations in 2023; only seven teams saw a higher neutral pass rate against them. From Week 13 to Week 18, Detroit faced the NFL’s…

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