Over the past three years, we’ve seen an average of 6.7 ~new teams~ make the playoffs each year. That’s fairly wild when you consider 14 teams make the playoffs each season. Last year I went out on a limb and predicted seven new teams who would make the postseason. Three of my picks made it, four of them missed. I did not see the Browns starting five quarterbacks and stealing a playoff bid or the Steelers sneaking in. Jordan Love going nuclear also evaded my radar.
Let’s just ignore any suggestion about various NFC South teams who could take a leap forward, shall we?
If we’re getting six new playoff teams it means we’re losing six previous teams as well. Last year I listed seven teams who could miss the playoffs in 2023 and went 5-2 with those picks. The Buccaneers and Dolphins were my misses.
The Brinson Model™️ will be dropping soon with full season projections so you can get BIG MAD about your team’s actual record, but for now we’ll have to settle for some angry debate on teams I believe will take a step back in 2024.
For what it’s worth, six teams have made the playoffs each of the last three years: Kansas City, Buffalo, Dallas, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. Tampa is the only one to have any truly significant chance over that period of time — Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield — although you could argue the Chiefs moving on from Tyreek Hill counts as well. I’m ruling out *most* of those teams to miss the playoffs this year as a result, although it’s very possible one NFC East team takes a dip if the Giants or Commanders can surprise.
This exercise is never “easy” because you’re being pessimistic in late July/early August. But this feels particularly difficult this year, with a lot of last year’s playoff teams returning some very strong rosters.
Anywho, let’s get to it. Send your suggestions for candidates or complaints about the ones below to me on Twitter…
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