Isiah Pacheco’s impressive playoff stretch means he’ll go earlier in 2024 fantasy football drafts. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
As a general rule — one that applies to any fantasy sport (or human undertaking) — we should try to make decisions based on as much information as can be reasonably gathered. We want more data, not less.
We certainly shouldn’t allow a player’s most recent game to completely reset their value moving forward. Habitually overreacting to small-sample performances is a terrible way to operate as a fantasy manager.
Of course, it’s not as if habitual underreaction is particularly helpful, either. Ideally, you can find a middle ground. We need to be able to recognize true breakouts or declines as they happen, while also accepting that sports are full of noise and false promises.
No matter how you personally tend to operate in your fantasy life, I’m afraid the community at large will definitely continue to exaggerate the importance of single-game performances — particularly spotlight games on the biggest postseason stages.
With this fact in mind, today’s mission is to review a few players who have clearly acquired new coordinates on 2024 fantasy draft boards, based largely on January surges and slides.
Let’s begin with the one player on our list who still has a game ahead of him …
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs 📈
Three weeks ago, someone around here produced a two-round fantasy mock draft that did not include Pacheco. Just an outrageous whiff. Truly scandalous. At the time, Pacheco was in consideration at the end of the second round, but, ultimately, I closed with James Cook, Jalen Hurts and Nico Collins. A regrettable mistake.
Today, swimming in that regret, I’d slot Pacheco in the back half of the first round. He has a firm grip on a high-usage featured role for Kansas City, with receiving volume and goal-line work included. Pacheco has scored at least one TD in each of his last seven games and he’s delivered at…
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