Home underdogs heading into their bye week have been a reliable bet, posting a 32-17-2 record against the spread (ATS) since 2015, which translates to a winning percentage of 65.3%. These teams often play with added urgency, knowing they have extra time to regroup after the game. Many head coaches motivate their players by offering an extra day off if they win, and this added incentive is often overlooked in the betting line.
There is one such case for this in Week 4, as well as a couple other teams I think you should consider backing.
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Here’s a look at my Week 4 ATS picks and how confident I am on a 1-5 scale. And click here to check out another notable NFL betting strategy at SportsLine.
Week 4 ATS picks
Falcons +2.5
Confidence: 4
Atlanta’s most significant data point this week is that they are returning home following an ugly shutout loss. The Falcons were blanked 30-0 by the Carolina Panthers in Week 3, marking their first shutout since 2021 and their most lopsided defeat since 2015. Historically, teams that face such embarrassing losses tend to respond with better focus and effort the following week. Atlanta was playing their first game outdoors, which has always been a tough spot for the team.
The Washington Commanders face significant uncertainty at the quarterback position. Jayden Daniels suffered a knee sprain against Green Bay in Week 2 and was ruled out for Week 3. While there’s optimism about his Week 4 return, his status remains up in the air. The Commanders are dealing with multiple key injuries beyond Daniels. Terry McLaurin left Week 3 with a quad injury, while Austin Ekeler (Achilles) and Noah Brown (groin) remain out. Keep an eye on Daniels’ status. Once his status is official, the line could move 3 to 4 points in either direction.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers…
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