With the end of the season approaching, the College Football Playoff is close to commencing, and the time for teams to bulk up their playoff resume is ending. ESPN’s Projection Models can predict which teams will make the playoff, if people splice the numbers carefully. Are the Georgia Bulldogs in good position to make the playoff?
First, we’ll look at the highest percentage to win conference for all Power Four conferences. Alabama (57.1%), Ohio State (53.8%), Texas Tech (38.1%), and Georgia Tech (33.0%) all make the playoff by this logic. However, the NCAA made it a rule this year, where teams that win their conference get automatic bids, but not automatic byes.
Georgia (18.2%), Indiana (34.5%), BYU (33.1%), and Miami (19.3%) all lose their respective conference championships by this logic.
For the Group of Five participant, we’ll see the group of Five teams with the highest playoff percentage. That’s the USF Bulls (46.2%), who make the playoff by winning over the North Texas Mean Green in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) and finishing with a higher playoff percentage than the James Madison Dukes (8.0%) and Boise State Broncos (9.6%).
That same logic is applied to all the at-large bids. The seven teams with the highest playoff percentage, outside of the conference champions, all make the playoff. That means Indiana (94.3%), Texas A&M (84.4%), Georgia (81.6%), Oregon (75.8%), BYU (52.6%), Ole Miss (48.6%), and Miami (44.1%) all make the playoff. Oklahoma, Texas, Vanderbilt, and Missouri are all the first ones out, by this logic.
For seeding, we can look at projected record for each of the playoff teams. The Georgia Bulldogs have a projected record of 10.2-2.2, which is the No. 11 highest number. However, it’s likely they’ll give the Group of Five teams the No. 12 seed.
There are some discrepancies to this data. The…
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