College football recruiting has vastly changed over the years, but one of the constants that’s remained is the weight of expectations on five-star recruits. The higher a recruit is ranked, the higher the expectations are that they’ll immediately become a difference-maker for their team — and perhaps leave conference championships and College Football Playoff appearances in their wake.
In the Class of 2024 there’s nobody that has higher expectations than Ohio State freshman Jeremiah Smith. The 6-foot-3, 200 pound star out of Chaminade-Madonna Prep in Opa Locka, Florida, led his team to a perfect 14-0 record and a third consecutive state title and put up insane numbers while doing so: 88 receptions for 1,376 yards and 19 touchdowns in 2023. The Buckeye signee became the first wide receiver to be ranked as the No. 1 overall recruit in the Top247 rankings since 247Sports started them in 2010. He is every bit the generational prospect.
“He’s got ready-to-play size to go along with top-flight athleticism and an advanced feel for the position,” says 247Sports Director of Scouting Andrew Ivins, who compares Smith to Julio Jones. “And he’s got a pro-like mindset.”
Prior to 2024, there’d been 12 receivers ranked in the top 10 overall players in the Top247 rankings. Dorial Green-Beckham had been the highest ranked Top247 wideout recruit when he signed with Missouri back in 2012 as the No. 2 ranked recruit in the nation.
To try and set a reasonable expectation for what Smith’s numbers could look like in 2024, we studied past freshmen performances of receivers who ranked as top-10 prospects. Some put up monster numbers as soon as they got on campus and others failed to have an instant impact.
The average season for the 12 receivers ranked in…
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