NFL wild-card weekend! Six games from Saturday to Monday that launch us into the second football season. For this week’s Playbook, I looked at each game and one specific matchup or aspect (sometimes multiple because I can’t help myself) that could swing things.
Starting with the Saturday afternoon game that should just be called “Texans time” by this point.
Can Texans, C.J. Stroud finally find answers for season-long issues?
The Texans’ run game isn’t good. It’s actually the worst run game this NFL season. It’s a reflection of an offensive line that has battled injuries, and a setback in play and cohesion. The poor run game creates tons of long downs and distances for C.J. Stroud to overcome. To make it worse, the lack of consistent protection means opponents can either blitz and win instantly on plays or not even bring pressure and have it still affect Stroud and his offense.
That lack of threat in the run game and ability to play passively against the Texans has allowed defenses to stay in soft coverages. They keep a lid on big plays to Nico Collins and dare Stroud and the rest of the offense to put together multiple plays in a row. Stroud has faced the third-most dropbacks this season with a defense using a split-safety coverage (with both safeties deep in a two-high shell and not in the box as another body against the run), and he’s struggled against those coverages, ranking 26th in dropback success rate and 24th in EPA per dropback.
This is more a reflection on the Texans’ current ecosystem as it’s hard to attack downfield if you can’t protect! This has me still optimistic about Stroud in the future. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that the Chargers run split-safety coverages under Jesse Minter at the second-highest rate in the NFL, with the coaching staff’s attention to detail being highlighted in these coverages that get unlocked with proper scouting.
Another reflection of how well-coached and aware this defense is is how well the…
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