Football truly straddles the line between being an art and a science.
Honestly, you could zoom out and include all sports. But after watching OC Ben Johnson scheme up nearly a dozen plays for offensive linemen, I had to close all my spreadsheets. My technically oriented mindset doesn’t know how to factor in pettiness. However, it makes the games all the more enjoyable.
If a perfect model for the NFL existed, we wouldn’t get as excited entering each week. I’d have known to start Romeo Doubs. However, the storylines are a blend of human chaos and statistics that make the “art and science” descriptor fit. And after another wild set of games, let’s tease out some takeaways from all the drama.
Is Jordan Love a top-3 fantasy QB for the rest of the season?
Admittedly, a top-three mark for Jordan Love feels aggressive.
Typically, we reserve that level of confidence for mobile QBs. Over the last five seasons, non-hybrid passers have needed at least 4,828 passing yards and 38 TDs to crack the top three. After Love posted his fourth multi-TD outing on Sunday, the results hint at a path for him to get there. But the offensive success comes from the scheme as much as Love’s arm.
HC Matt LaFleur has been in his bag all season. The Packers have top-12 marks in yards per drive and EPA per play. But it’s not all done through the air. Love’s dropback rate on early downs (54.0%) sits at the league average. So, having the backfield maintain a 48.5% success rate makes obvious passing situations easier for Love. However, his group of receivers and their ability to create highlights every week are what will keep Love in the top-three discussion:
Doubs’ return (and two-TD result) will garner most of the attention, but his skill set seamlessly fits Green Bay’s passing game. Operating primarily as their X-receiver, his 3.34 YPRR from the boundary (with Love under center) falls in line with other WR1s (Mike Evans – 3.44, Terry McLaurin – 3.45). Love’s aggressive…
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