NFL Week 2: Why intermediate passing game, blitz pickup will determine whether Vikings or 49ers move to 2-0

The margins between winning and losing in the National Football League can be razor thin.

That’s why it’s time to take a closer look at one of Week 2’s biggest showdowns between a couple of 1-0 teams, the San Francisco 49ers and the Minnesota Vikings. We’ll examine the two biggest matchups, one on each side of the football, and figure who has the advantage each in each key area. Let’s get to it.

WARNING: we are entering Week 2, so Week 1 and recent, past seasons are all we have to look back on as far as data points go

Vikings offense vs. 49ers defense

New Minnesota quarterback Sam Darnold, who was Brock Purdy’s 49ers backup in 2023, looked like a new man in Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense during their 28-6 Week 1 road win at the New York Giants. He completed 19 of his 24 passes, including a career-high 12 in a row to start the game, for 208 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. His 79.2% completion was the third-best in Week 1, he was only sacked once and his sole interception came on a tipped pass. One game is an incredibly small sample size, but Darnold played like top-five quarterback among Week 1 passers as his 113.2 passer rating was the fifth-best in the NFL.

His top target, 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson, is unquestionably a top-five wide receiver in football. He became just the third player all-time to total at least 1,000 receiving yards (1,074) while playing in 10 or fewer games. Since his dominant OPOY run in 2022, Jefferson has been elite at separating and producing on intermediate throws, passes traveling 10 to 19 yards through the air, ranking top-five in targets (93), catches (62) and receiving yards (1,129) in that span. 

Justin Jefferson intermediate area receiving
since 2022

Targets  

93

4th

Receptions

62

3rd

Receiving Yards

1,129

4th

* Intermediate Area= 10-19 yards

** Jefferson won the 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award

On the…

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