Six quarterbacks were selected in the top 12 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft, so these rookies will be under the microscope more than ever before. Their performance will be dissected in every which way, compared with their fellow rookies, rookies across NFL history, the rest of the league this season and, of course, the quarterbacks they are replacing.
History tells us it’s a coin flip that they will outplay their predecessors as rookies. There have been 44 qualified seasons by rookie quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2001. Twenty-three of them outplayed (or matched) their team’s quarterback from the previous season in terms of EPA (expected points added) per play. In 2023, C.J. Stroud blew the Texans’ previous quarterback (Davis Mills) out of the water. Justin Herbert had big shoes to fill in 2020, but he still matched Philip Rivers’ level of play.
One of the more surprising items from this list was Zach Wilson outplaying Sam Darnold. That’s how bad the Jets’ quarterback play has been I suppose. In that same vein, I don’t think the Patriots would be too encouraged by Drake Maye slightly outperforming what Mac Jones did in 2023, but hey, it would be a step forward at least.
First-round rookie QBs who outperformed signal-caller they replaced
With that in mind, I’ve ranked the rookie class by most likely to outplay their predecessor. At least two or three should do it considering how low the bar is. Five of the six quarterbacks being replaced were among the league’s worst last year.
2024 rookie quarterbacks most likely to outplay predecessor
6. J.J. McCarthy, Vikings (Predecessor: Kirk Cousins)
J.J. McCarthy is the least-likely quarterback to outplay his predecessor, mostly because Kirk Cousins was a top-10 quarterback last year before he tore his Achilles in Week 8. McCarthy also has to beat out Sam Darnold for the starting job, and we’re not exactly sure what we’ll see out of McCarthy…
..
