We’ve examined the cost of the Giants and Vikings trading up to nab a quarterback in the top-five picks, and now our attention turns to the Broncos. Fortunately for Denver, a trade up to No. 3 from No. 12 is less theoretical than most of the trade scenarios we’ve covered, as the 49ers did exactly that three years ago when they sent the 12th overall pick, their first-round pick in each of the following two drafts and a third-round pick in the next year’s draft to get the No. 3 pick and ultimately draft Trey Lance. That deal was about 46 points above our baseline value for the No. 3 pick, which is what we’ve been calling medium value in our look across the three types of potential trade scenarios (also including competitive-market value) for each prospective trade-up team for each pick.
Considering the Broncos don’t have a second-round pick this year, even the baseline value of trading up from 3 to 12 should cost an additional two future first-round picks. That would be 670.77 points of value, just over the package the Texans put together to move up from No. 12 to No. 3 last year that included one future first-round pick but also the No. 33 pick in the 2023 draft, which is just about the same value for us as a future first-rounder.
In a competitive-market scenario where multiple teams are jockeying to move up to No. 3? The Broncos are probably stuck giving up a fifth pick in addition to the three firsts and one third from the 49ers trade, likely in the second round of a future draft. It seems unlikely they’d be willing to meet that cost and figure in any competitive market to be outbid by a team like the Vikings with an additional first-round pick this year.
But what if the quarterback the Broncos want is available after the top-three picks? There hasn’t been a straight pick trade up to No. 4 or No. 5 since at least 2016, which is the first year I began compiling and adjusting pick values for my…
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