Cincinnati Bengals v Kansas City Chiefs
Below is a look at the league’s most extreme run funnel and pass funnel defenses through the Divisional Round — teams being consistently attacked on the ground or through the air regardless of game script.
Having an understanding of which defenses are being bludgeoned via the rush or pass should help us identify matchups that may be better than we think in Super Wild Card Weekend DFS contests and other fantasy formats.
Not every game, of course, features a clearcut run or pass funnel defense. I’ve broken down both of this weekend’s games, even if there are no trends in how a defense is being attacked. My hope is to provide a basis from which you can make your all-important lineups decisions in this condensed slate.
And please remember at all times: The process.
49ers vs. Lions
We have a classic pass funnel vs. pass funnel matchup here. Detroit and San Francisco, however, are pass funnels for two very different reasons.
Teams have leaned hard on the pass against the 49ers because Kyle Shanahan’s hyper-efficient offense has poured on the points and forced opponents to abandon the rush in the second half. No team saw a higher pass rate over expected against them than the 49ers during the regular season. San Francisco opponents had a 62 percent neutral pass rate this year, the second highest rate in the league.
This has largely covered for a Niners defense that can be had on the ground; we saw as much in the Divisional Round when Aaron Jones had 108 yards on 18 carries, with an obscene 5.2 yards after contact per rush. The Packers posted a lofty 50 percent rushing success rate against the 49ers.
The Lions, on the other hand, have been mercilessly attacked via the pass because they’re quite bad at defending the pass. This is analytics. Teams passed at a 61 percent rate against Detroit in neutral situations in 2023; only seven teams saw a higher neutral pass rate against them. From Week 13 to Week 18, Detroit faced the NFL’s…
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